Statistical Forecast of Temperature Dynamics within Month on the Basis of Hydrodynamic Model Outputs

R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, and V. M. Khan

A method of a long-term forecast of smoothed temperature dynamics within month with a zero lead time for some Russian sites is considered. A procedure of a search for optimum predictors and a regression-analog prediction scheme are described. Hydrodynamic forecasts for the first ten days of the prognostic month are used as a predictor. Results of the prediction scheme verification on independent data with the use of hydrodynamic model outputs are discussed. Ways to improve the prediction scheme are suggested.