Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 2. Verification of Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models CMIP3 for Projections of Future Climate Changes

V. A. Govorkova, V. M. Kattsov, V. P. Meleshko, T. V. Pavlova, and I. M. Shkol’nik

Results of simulation of radiation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and hydrological regime components for Russia with the help of an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate models is analyzed. Despite a large spread among the models, the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble simulations of the key characteristics of the observed surface climate agree well with observations, anyway in averaging over areas of vast regions, from watersheds of large rivers to the whole of Russia. These means (ensemble- and area-averaged values) often fall into the range of estimates derived from observations. This suggests the existence of uncertainty in the estimates obtained from simulations as well as from observational data. Comparison of different-generation models demonstrates a gradual improvement of the AOGCM simulation of surface climate characteristics. In general, the averaging over the CMIP3 AOGCM ensemble allows us to state that the ensemble is suitable for estimates of future climate changes.