Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 3. Future Climate Changes Calculated with an Ensemble of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation CMIP3 Models

V. P. Meleshko, V. M. Kattsov, V. A. Govorkova, P. V. Sporyshev, I. M. Shkol’nik, and B. E. Shneerov

Probable climate changes in Russia in the 21st century are considered based on the results of global climate simulations with an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean CMIP3 models. The future changes in the surface air temperature, atmospheric pressure, cloud amount, atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, soil water content, and annual runoff in Russia and some of its regions in the early, middle, and late 21st century are analyzed using the A2 scenario of the greenhouse gas and aerosol emission. Future changes in the yearly highest and lowest surface air temperatures and in summer precipitation of high intensity are estimated for Russia. Possible oscillations of the Caspian Sea level associated with the expected global climate warming are estimated. In addition to the estimates of the ensemble mean changes in climatic characteristics, the information about standard deviations and statistical significance of the corresponding climate changes is given.