A Study of Effectiveness of the Ensemble Long-term Forecasts of Spring Floods Issued with Physically Based Models of the River Runoff Formation

L. S. Kuchment and A. N. Gelfan

In this paper, possible ways to increase effectiveness of the long-term ensemble spring floods forecasting and to assess their uncertainty based on the physical-mathematical model of the runoff formation (for the Vyatka River case study) are studied. It is shown that deterministic forecasts issued by using this approach are more accurate than those obtained from the traditional forecasting methods based on regression relationships. Probabilistic methods of forecasting of the spring flood volume and maximum discharge, which are issued by using various ways of the weather ensembles setting, are compared. Reliability of probabilistic forecasts of the volume and maximum discharge is estimated.

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