Assessment of Probability Multimodel Seasonal Forecast Based on the APCC Model Data

A. Yu. Bundel, V. N. Kryzhov, Young-Mi Min, V. M. Khan, R. M. Vilfand, and V. A. Tishchenko

The probability multimodel forecast system based on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) model data is verified. The winter and summer seasonal mean fields T850 and precipitation seasonal totals are estimated. To combine the models into a multimodel ensemble, the probability forecast is calculated for each of single models first, and then these forecasts are combined using the total probability formula. It is shown that the multimodel forecast is considerably more skillful than the single-model forecasts. The forecast quality is higher in the tropics compared to the mid- and high latitudes. The multimodel ensemble temperature forecasts outperform the random and climate forecasts for Northern Eurasia in the above- and below-normal categories. Precipitation forecast is less successful. For winter, the combination of single-model ensembles provides the precipitation forecast skill exceeding that of the random forecast for both Northern Eurasia and European Russia.

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