Possible Forerunners of Droughts in Agricultural Areas of Russia

E. V. Rocheva

Considered is the regional index of anticyclonic circulation IpH taking account of the percentage of the area occupied by the significant positive anomalies of the geopotential at the level of 500 hPa for the main agricultural areas of Russia. Analyzed are the variations of the index in the 20th and 21st centuries using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the outputs of model experiments with the ECHAM5 climate model (Germany). Discussed is the possibility of revealing the drought forerunners using the combination of indices of anticyclonic circulation, quasi-biennial cyclicity in the wintertime equatorial stratosphere, and teleconnections.