Estimation of Possible Climatic Changes of River Runoff in the Northern Dvina River Basin in the 21st Century

V. A. Bel’chikov, A. Ya. Polunin, Yu. A. Simonov, and A. V. Khristoforov

Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented.