Specifying the Atmospheric Pollutant Distribution Forecast Using the Mathematical Modeling and Measurement Data

A. N. Rublev, Yu. V. Vlasova, and E. V. Gorbarenko

Considered is a possibility of specifying the forecast of volcanic aerosol distribution in the atmosphere using the data of ground-based actinometric measurements. To simulate the aerosol distribution, the FlexPart software (Norwegian Institute for Air Research) was used. Using the FlexGraph software (Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology), the visualization and interactive analysis were carried out of aerosol concentration fields at different time moments. The prognostic concentration of volcanic ash from Grímsvötn volcano (May 2011) is bound to the results of measurements of aerosol optical depth in Hamburg at one of the points of AERONET global network. The comparison of the corrected aerosol concentration with the measurements at other AERONET points demonstrated the competence of the proposed approach. To specify the aerosol cloud distribution forecast on the territory of Russia, the Roshydromet actinometric network data can be used.