Experience of Using a Dynamic Stochastic Approach for Solving the Problem of Very Short-range Forecasting of State Parameters of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

V. S. Komarov, A. V. Lavrinenko, N. Ya. Lomakina, and S. N. Il'in

Discussed are the results of applying a dynamic stochastic method based on the use of the two-dimensional model and the Kalman filtering algorithm for solving the problem of the very short- range (from 0.5 to 6 hours) forecast of air temperature and orthogonal components of the wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer realized using the data of radiometric, sodar, and increased-frequency radiosonde measurements. It is demonstrated that the proposed technique and the appropriate algorithm give a rather high accuracy of very short-range forecasting of temperature and wind within the lead time range under consideration.

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