Present-day Variations and Paleodynamics of the Caspian Sea Level as a Standard for Climate Modeling Data Verification

A. V. Kislov, A. V. Panin, and P. A. Toropov

Long-term variations of the Caspian Sea level occur mainly due to river runoff variations (the variations of the Volga River runoff is of primary importance here). In this case, the observed and reconstructed variations of the Caspian Sea level can serve as a standard for assessing the quality of the model runoff simulated by climate models. To solve this problem, a number of detailed maps of the Cas¬pian Sea are prepared for the series of regression and transgression stages. These data are used for veri¬fying the results of some numerical experiments carried out within the framework of CMIP5/PMIP3. It is demonstrated that the model data can be verified depending on how well the models simulate the pres¬ent-day (instrumentally observed) variations of the decadal scale reconstructed in recent 1000 years of variations: the transition from the Derbent regression to the New Caspian transgression (the 5th phase) with the insignificant sea level drop in the late 19th century and under conditions of large regression during the period of the late Pleistocene glaciation maximum.

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