PROBABILITY INTERPRETATION OF THE FORECAST OF ICE THICKNESS GROWTH UP TO 20—25 CM IN ARCTIC SEAS

V. G. Dmitriev

Results of an a posteriori probability interpretation of the forecasts of ice thickness growth up to 20—25 cm in Arctic seas are presented. The method is based on the approach of conditional forecast error distribution formulated by the author in 1997. The aim is to find a way to estimate categorical (binary) forecast uncertainty according to the end-to-end forecasting concept. The results of calculating forecast error distribution density parameters are given for combining data from the seas. It provides a principal possibility of using binary forecasts in continuous optimization during planning sea ice-dependent actions. Advantages of the proposed method over traditional conjugation matrices are discussed.