SENSITIVITY OF NUMERICAL FORECASTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS TO ERRORS IN DATA ON INITIAL CYCLONE COORDINATES

S. A. Mashkovich

The response of numerical forecasts of motion of tropical cyclones to the inaccuracy in specification of their initial position is considered using the model of the Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Center. The uncertainties in data on the position of a tropical cyclone were simulated by varying its actual coordinates. Three-day forecasts of typhoon tracks were computed using actual and perturbed initial data. The characteristics of time evolution of initial errors, track spread, and forecast errors show that ensemble forecasting should be introduced to take into account uncertainties in the initial information about tropical cyclones. Examples of consensus forecasts using ensembles of tropical cyclone tracks are given.

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