IS THE ARCTIC OZONE HOLE CLOSING?

I. L. Karol, T. A. Egorova, V. A. Zubov, Yu. E. Ozolin, and E. V. Rozanov

Results of the analysis of an abrupt decrease of the Antarctic “ozone hole” and its division into two parts in September 2002 are presented. The results are obtained using transport-photochemical models (3-D MEZON and trajectory) based on the UKMO reanalysis data. A conclusion is made about the abnormally early warming in the Antarctic stratosphere as a cause of destruction of a polar stratospheric jet stream and ozone inflow from the subpolar latitudes of the Atlantic sector to the ozone hole area. There are no reasons whatsoever to conclude about a substantial decrease in its intensity in the near future.

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