ASSESSMENT OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FALL-WINTER SEASON FOR HIBERNATION AND FORMATION OF GROSS WINTER GRAIN YIELD IN RUSSIA

V. A. Moiseichik, N. A. Bogomolova, and T. A. Maksimenkova

The paper presents the summarized results of long-term observations and scientific investigations of agrometeorological conditions for hibernation of winter grains in the Russian Federation. A physicomathematical model of agrometeorological conditions of winter grains wintering is first used to classify winters according to the main causes for winter crop death and to calculate the probability of extreme situations arising from considerable economic costs of dead winter crop reseeding in spring and from a decrease in the gross yield of winter grains. A statistical relation is presented between the gross winter grains yield in the Russian Federation as a whole and the size of areas under dead crops during the fall-winter season. The probability of loss of winter grains in different areas due to freezing, rotting an adverse influence of ground-in ice crust and an integrated effect of unfavorable factors is given for the first time for all administrative units of the Russian Federation. A need to take into account the agrometeorological conditions of the fall-winter season in cultivating winter grains and increasing the gross yield in Russia is scientifically validated.