CHANGES IN VARIABILITY OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AS AN AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTOR

G. V. Surkova and K. Pona

Results are given of modeling experiments on sensitivity of winter wheat to variability of daily air temperature maximums and minimums and also to variability of the amount and frequency of precipitation. The CERES-Wheat V.3.0 model of wheat growth and development is realized for five climate scenarios with different variability of air temperature and precipitation for three typical locations on the Apennines Peninsula. The data of these stations are used as initial for the Weather Generator WXGEN, on the basis of which scenarios with various variability are formed. It is shown that a decrease in variability of precipitation leads to a general yield decrease for all periods, but, in this case, variability of productivity also decreases from year to year. A decrease in temperature variability results in a small increase of productivity and growth of yield variability from year to year. An increase in temperature variability leads to a reduction of crop yield and to an increase in its interannual variability.