THE KYOTO PROTOCOL: PROBLEMS OF RATIFICATION

Yu. A. Izrael, I. M. Nazarov, M. L. Gitarskii, A. I. Nakhutin, and A. F. Yakovlev

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the problem of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the Russian Federation. The commitments of the countries on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions evident from the Kyoto Protocol are shown to have no practical influence on the rise in concentration of these gases in the atmosphere, i.e., it is not able to secure attaining the main objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The reduction of greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to be at most 0.5 percent by 2010. After the United States (the main source of greenhouse gas emissions) withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, even such a modest target of the Protocol cannot be achieved. Specific examples are given of a discriminatory character of the Kyoto Protocol with respect to the Russian Federation, the country that since 1990 has reduced greenhouse gas emissions more significantly than all the other countries taken together. The necessity of a careful scientific, economic, and political assessment of the problem concerning the advisability to ratify the Kyoto Protocol is substantiated.