THE EFFECT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION ON THE DATES OF RIVER BREAKUP IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA

B. M. Ginzburg and M. I. Silnitskaya

A brief review of previous studies of the problem is presented. The coefficients of expansion in empirical orthogonal functions for winter (November—March) anomaly field in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific are used to characterize a spatial distribution of sea surface temperature. A profound, statistically significant effect of a limited number of the first expansion coefficients on river breakup dates was found for the southern rivers for November—January and for most of other rivers primarily for February. The predictors found will be applied to develop a method of long-term prediction of river breakup dates and its refinement with a medium-term lead time.

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