Vector Frontogenesis as a Factor of Precipitation Generation

N. I. Komas’ko, N. P. Shakina, E. N. Skriptunova, and A. R. Ivanova

Statistical relationships between the vector frontogenesis and its components, scalar and rotational frontogenesis, and the occurrence frequency of precipitation of different rates are estimated using the data of objective analysis and precipitation observations at the stations in Europe and the west of Central Asia for 2005–2013. It is found that the vector frontogenesis is an important factor of precipitation generation, namely, the third one after convective instability and atmospheric fronts. Rotational frontogenesis which has not been considered before from this point of view, is the most efficient among the vector frontogenesis characteristics for the discrimination between the cases of precipitation occurrence and non-occurrence (especially for heavy and very heavy precipitation). Assessed are the regional features of statistical relationships under study in the computation domain. The obtained results can be used for developing the method of probabilistic forecasting of precipitation.