The Use of Seasonal Rhythms and Conditional Random Process Repeatability for the Prospective Estimation of the Forthcoming Cold Half-Year Nature in the Midlatitude Eastern Eurasia

L. S. Chernysheva and V. A. Platonova

The nature of cold half-years in midlatitude Asia is investigated using the data from 1917 to 2008. The schemes are developed of transitive forecasts of various characteristics of the thermal cold half-year structure on the basis of the use of seasonal rhythms within the cold half-year: the duration of the whole cold period and pre-spring period and the dates of the end of the coldest winter period. The reasonability of computation scheme adaptation to the certain dynamics of both predictors and predictants is demonstrated. The possibilities are considered of the determination of duration and dates of the coldest winter period coming at certain stations with the lead time of one year according to the conditional repeatability of the process of their temporal variations.

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