Analysis of the Results of Thunderstorm Forecasting Based on Atmospheric Instability Indices Using the WRF-ARW Numerical Model Data

I. M. Gubenko and K. G. Rubinshtein

Presented are the statistical estimates of 26 indices of atmospheric instability widely used in the world practice for the thunderstorm prediction. Proposed is a new index for the thunderstorm forecasting that takes account of the vertical component of wind speed. The computation of indices is based on the data of forecasts obtained with the WRF-ARW hydrodynamic mesoscale model. The verification of thunderstorm forecasts is carried out using the observational data from weather stations and the data of the World Wide Lightning Location Network.

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