E. A. Zhadin

Relations of the interannual variations between total ozone and surface air temperature are investigated using monthly mean (January—March) TOMS and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for 1979—1994. It is shown that the geographical regions with strong negative total ozone trends correspond well to those with large climate warming. On the interannual time scales, an increase (a decrease) in total ozone occurs also over regions where cooling (warming) is observed in winter. Strong nonlocal correlations (~ —0.75) were found between the total ozone variations over England in January and surface air changes in western Siberia, southern European Russia, and the Azores in February in 1979—1994. These results may be used for extended-range forecast of extreme cold/warm winters (30—40 days onward) using the total ozone data as a predictor in the future. Possible mechanisms of this nonlocal linkage and its relation to the Arctic Oscillation are discussed.

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