CALCULATION OF STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD PEAK DISCHARGES FROM METEOROLOGICAL DATA USING DYNAMIC-STOCHASTIC MODELS

L. S. Kuchment, A. N. Gelfan, and V. N. Demidov

A dynamic-stochastic model of snowmelt and rainfall runoff generation has been developed. Dynamic part of the model is based on the finite-element schematization of a catchment area and includes descriptions of snow cover formation and snow melting, infiltration into the soil, soil freezing and soil thawing, evaporation, overland and channel flow. Stochastic part of the model describes temporal variations of precipitation for warm and cold seasons, daily air temperatures for the cold season, and air humidity deficit for the warm season. Possibilities of using the dynamic-stochastic model of runoff generation for calculation of probabilistic characteristics of flood peak discharges are shown. Studies have been carried out by the example of the Seim River (up to Kursk).

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