ROUTINE HYDRODYNAMIC SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES AND WEATHER CHARACTERISTICS AT POINTS

L. V. Berkovich, S. L. Belousov , Yu. V. Tkacheva, and G. Yu. Kalugina

Results of studies and routine application of hydrodynamic forecast of meteorological variables at points based on a prognostic model of large-scale meteorological fields together with the calculations by the atmospheric boundary layer model are dealt with. A worth-while approach to the problem is described given the conditions and requirements of the routine work at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia at a present-day level of the computer facilities, observation and data collection systems, and the knowledge of physical parameters of the atmosphere and the underlying surface. The air temperature, wind, cloud amount, and precipitation forecast success at Moscow in 1999 are statistically estimated and considered. The efficiency of improved spatial resolution in the model calculations of the boundary layer (horizontal spacing is 7.5 km) for local weather forecasting at points and limited areas is presented. The problems and prospects of hydrodynamic weather forecasts are considered.