The Climate Change Effect on Probable Maximum Precipitation in a Catchment. A Case Study of the Karun River Catchment in the Shalu Bridge Site (Iran)

Z. Ramak, J. Porhemmat, H. Sedghi, E. Fattahi,

and M. Lashni-Zand

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is assessed on the example of the Karun catchment (the Shalu bridge area). The climate change effects on PMP are investigated under three scenarios: A1B, A2, and B1. It is established that the PMP value for 24, 48, and 72 hours is 127, 170, and 185 mm, respectively. It is demonstrated that the PMP value will decrease by up to 5% under A1B scenario, and will increase by up to 5% and 10% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively.

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