Forecasting Environmental Contamination Development in the Coastal and Water Area of the Russian Far East under the Effect of the Radiation Factor and Industrial Anthropogenic Load under Conditions of Catastrophes

V. N. Soyfer, D. V. Andreev, and Yu. N. Zhukov

Studies of seasonal variability (including the winter season) of the main hydrodynamic, sedimentation, physicochemical and other characteristics of the Chazhma Bay of the Sea of Japan, in the zone of the atomic submarine K-431 nuclear accident of 1985 that influence the radioecological state of the environment was carried out. The substance fluxes required for estimating radionuclide balance are defined based on the expedition survey of radioactivity of bottom sediments, sea water, and suspension in the epicenter of the accident and over the water area of the bay together with hydrophysical, sedimentation, and meteorological observations. Modern trace methods and 3D prognostic modeling of interaction of natural and anthropogenic processes of evolution of radioactive contamination of the bottom sediments in the zone of the atomic submarine accident are used; a new approach to estimating the maximum contamination of the marine environment is proposed.