Methods of Reliability Increase in the Estimation of Seasonal Thermal Atmospheric Conditions from Long-term Observational Data (by the Example of the Northeastern Part of the Black Sea)

O. I. Prokopov

The method is developed of season separation within the annual cycle of thermal atmospheric conditions tracing the regime of the intrusion of relatively cold and warm air flows into the Black Sea area and providing the increase in the estimation reliability of thermal conditions within the actual seasonal periods. The considerable irregularity of the dates of actual season beginning and the possibility of considerable fluctuations of duration of their spring and fall modifications are revealed. It is noticed that the season separation methods change the estimate of their thermal conditions so considerably that the standard procedure of the annual cycle division into the seasons cannot be considered anymore as the method providing the reliability of their determination. It is demonstrated that the season separation method used in the paper also provides the increase in the estimation reliability of the regime of seasonal and long-tern variability of agrometeorological, hydrophysical, hydrochemical, and hydrobiological processes in the Black Sea basin.