Estimation of Critical Levels of Climate Change Influence on the Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Territory of Russia

O. A. Anisimov, E. L. Zhil’tsova, and S. A. Reneva

Developed are the axiomatics and criteria for estimating the critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems based on the revelation of key climate-dependent environmental elements and model analysis of their variations. Developed is an empirical statistical vegetation model for the territory of Russia considering 15 vegetation zones including five ones in the permafrost zone. The model was used to estimate the proximity of the climate impact on the natural terrestrial ecosystems to the critical level for several climate projections.