Downscaling of the Global Seasonal Forecasts of Hydrometcenter of Russia for North Eurasia

V. N. Kryzhov

Proposed is a method of downscaling of the global ensemble seasonal forecasts of air temperature computed using the SLAV model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The method is based on the regression and suggests a probabilistic interpretation of forecasts based on the assessment of uncertainty associated with the regression and model forecast ensemble spread. The verification of the method for 70 weather stations of North Eurasia using the rank probability skill score RPSS showed a significant advantage of downscaled forecasts over the forecasts interpolated from the model grid points. It is concluded that the use of the downscaling method is reasonable for the long-range forecasting of the station air temperature for North Eurasia.