Current and Expected Changes in Colorado Beetle Climatic Habitat in Russia and Neighboring Countries

E. N. Popova and S. M. Semenov

The climatic habitat of the hazardous agricultural vermin, Colorado beetle, on the territory of Russia and neighboring countries is computed using the model agroclimatic methods. The meteorological dataset of daily resolution available on the website of All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information–World Data Center is used and the requirements of the species to the habitat climate accepted in agroclimatology are taken into account. The computations are carried out for three time periods: 1951–1970, 1991–2010, and 2031–2050. Climatic characteristics (average annual temperature and accumulated effective temperatures) of the third period were estimated by means of linear interpolation proceeding from the first two periods. It is demonstrated that the changes in climatic habitat boundaries of the second period as compared with the first and third periods and of the third period as compared with the second period have a common trend: the broadening of the habitat takes place in the northern and especially eastern directions. The computed data are corroborated by the observational data on the actual distribution of Colorado beetle on the territory of Russia and neighboring countries.