The Method of Forecasting Squalls Using Thermodynamic Atmospheric Parameters and the Ertel Potential Vorticity

Yu. I. Yusupov

Considered is the method of forecasting squalls based on the determination of active convection zones and computation of maximum gusts of the surface wind in these zones using tropospheric winds. The computation of the interaction between the Ertel potential vorticity and low-level baroclinic zones is used for forecasting the active convection. The data for the computation are taken from the NWP models in GRIB and GRIB2 codes. Presented are the results of the statistical analysis of the data. Given is a case study of the squall registered in the center of the European part of Russia.

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