Conditions of Generation of Extremely High Water Content of Primorye Rivers in Autumn-Winter 2012

B. I. Gartsman, L. I. Mezentseva, T. S. Menovshehikova, N. Yu. Popova, and O. V. Sokolov

Analyzed are the synoptic and hydrological conditions of the generation of extremely high water content of Primorye rivers in the autumn of 2012. Revealed are the general features of atmo¬spheric circulation, precipitation, water content, and hydrological regime of rivers. Presented are quan¬titative parameters characterizing the extremity of observed events. The expert assessment of the proba¬bility of such combination of events demonstrates that its return period is about 500-1000 years if there is assumption on the stationarity of processes. Taking into account the revealed facts and available as¬sessments of climate changes it can be supposed that the analyzed event rather indicates real changes in the hydrological regime of the region than represents a rare random phenomenon.