The Method of the Medium-range Forecast of Air Temperature in the Area of the "Baikonur" Cosmodrome

N. V. Shirshov, R. M. Vil'fand, P. P. Vasil'ev, and E. L. Vasil'eva

The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic at¬mospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the "Baikonur" using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteris¬tics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information–World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of opera¬tional forecasts.

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