Large-scale Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of the Area of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

A. N. Chetyrbotskii

Developed is the large-scale model of the dynamics of the Arctic sea ice cover area based on the formal concepts of the dynamics of the components of the limited-area binary system. Proposed is the technique for its parametric identification. It is demonstrated that the distribution of the monthly mean values of the sea ice area for the period of 1972–2013 is defined with the high degree of accuracy as being close to the seasonal, annual, and 60-year components. Presented is the forecast of the sea ice area for 2014–2113.