LONG-TERM FORECASTS OF WATER INFLOW TO RESERVOIRS OF THE YENISEI HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANTS WITH THE USE OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

D. A. Burakov and A. A. Adamovich

A mathematical runoff model and its use for the long-term forecast of water inflow to the reservoirs of the Yenisei hydroelectric power plants (HPP) is considered. The model takes into account the following hydrometeorological parameters: snow accumulation, air temperature, precipitation, and water levels or discharges in the river network of the basin. To optimize snow accumulation and snowmelt blocks, satellite information on the dynamics of the area of simultaneous snow melting is used. Meteorological information for the forecast period is taken according to the analog year chosen for the long-term weather forecast. An approach to the air temperature forecast with the use of within-group correlation techniques taking into account continuity in the course of air temperature in the winter and spring period is discussed.