ERRORS IN THE SIMULATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE BY OCEAN—ATMOSPHERE MODELS WITH THE MOSCOW REGION TAKEN AS AN EXAMPLE

B. G. Sherstyukov

The choice of three climate models (CGCM2, HadCM3, and ECHAM4) used in climate change forecasts is briefly substantiated. The accuracy of model calculations is estimated based on comparison between monthly mean model data and actual data averaged over the period 1990—2000 (air temperature and humidity, precipitation, total solar radiation, and wind speed). It is shown that the annual cycle of temperature is better described by the ECHAM4 model and precipitation is simulated by all models incorrectly. A satisfactory result is obtained by averaging precipitation simulated by the three models. There is a systematic bias in model meteorological values relative to observations. Corrections for removing systematic biases in model climatic characteristics are obtained for each month.