WATER BALANCE OF THE VOLGA RIVER BASIN IN THE EARLY 21st CENTURY (FROM PALEOCLIMATE SCENARIOS)

I. I. Borzenkova and N. A. Lemeshko

Estimates of changes in the runoff, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented for the Volga River basin for a 1ºC global warming. Reconstruction maps of seasonal (winter and summer) air temperatures and annual precipitation for a 1ºC global warming are used as predicting scenarios of climate conditions in the early 21st century. This scale of climate warming corresponds to the climate of the Holocene optimum (6—5 kyr ago). Based on the paleoclimate scenario and on the Budyko evaporation assessment method, which was modified by one of the authors of the paper, a hydrological model has been developed to calculate heat and water balances of land for the current climate and for a 1ºC global warming.