ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES FOR SEASONAL DYNAMICAL MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BY SL-AV MODEL

I. V. Trosnikov, V. D. Kaznacheeva, D. B. Kiktev, and M. A. Tolstykh

An approach to assess the potential predictability of the atmospheric seasonal variations in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model integrations is proposed in this study. Analysis is based on the seasonal mean output of a six-member ensemble of 20-year integration with the SL-AV model. Spatial patterns of the potential predictability for selected variables are documented, which exhibit obvious regionality and seasonality.