CHOICE OF AN OPTIMAL ECONOMIC DECISION BASED ON A FORECAST OF SEVERE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

L. A. Khandozhko, A. A. Korshunov, and A. A. Fokicheva

A user's choice of optimal weather economic decisions with regard to anticipated severe hydrometeorological conditions is mathematically simulated. The posterior distribution of flood damage is studied using the Neva floods as an example. Maximum possible losses related to an actual water level are approximated. A possibility of choosing optimal decisions is shown, and the economic benefit of the Neva flood forecasts for St. Petersburg is estimated.