CONNECTION BETWEEN MONTHLY MEAN, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN RUSSIA AND WINTER ZONAL CIRCULATION INDICES

V. N. Kryzhov

Based on correlation analysis and canonical correlation, it is shown that zonal circulation anomalies at 700 hPa and January and February anomalies of Arctic cyclonic activity contribute significantly to monthly mean, seasonal, and annual mean temperature anomalies. They account for about 51% of the variance of the annual mean air temperature, 39% of the variance of the March–December mean temperature, and 27% of the variance of the June–December mean temperature. The asynchronous effect of winter circulation on air temperature occurs through positive feedbacks in the surface–atmosphere system.

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