INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ON THE AVERAGE CLIMATIC HYDROLOGICAL AND THERMAL REGIME OF NORTHERN EURASIA. II. MODELING OF INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE HEAT/WATER BALANCE

A. B. Shmakin and V. V. Popova

A simplified model of energy water exchange at the land surface with a time step has been developed for evaluation of long-period of the heat/water fluxes on large territories. Model computations are carried out for northern Eurasia for 1825—1996 with deviations from the average climatic regime caused only by temperature and precipitation anomalies related to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The model successfully reproduces the main interdecadal fluctuations of discharge from several European river basins, which demonstrates its significant dependence on the NAO, while in Asia this circulation mechanism does not result in discharge variations. The runoff from basins in northern and southern Europe is most sensitive to changes in the NAO index.