SCENARIOS OF THE ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

V. M. Kattsov, S. V. Vavulin, V. A. Govorkova, and T. V. Pavlova

Scenarios of the Arctic climate change in the 21st century are considered. The scenarios form a basis of impact assessment within the framework of the international effort “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (ACIA). The scenarios were obtained using five well-known modern global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models forced with one of the new greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol emission scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).