MODEL ESTIMATES OF LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE GAS AND AEROSOL CONCENTRATION

A. P. Nagurnyi, E. V. Rozanov, T. A. Egorova, and E. Yu. Medvedchenko

The combination of an atmospheric general circulation/ocean model and a simple atmosphere and ocean radiation-convective model is used to calculate regional (the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea) temperature and precipitation changes up to 1000 years ahead for various nonstationary scenarios of CO2,, CH4, and aerosol concentration changes. With a gradual increase (0.5, 1.0, and 2.0% per year) in CO2, and CH4 the air temperature in the first 100—150 years already rises in winter by 7.5—11ºC, in summer by 1.5ºC, in transitional seasons by 5.5ºC, and precipitation increases by 0.26 and 0.07 mm/day in winter and summer, respectively. The contribution of the anthropogenic (sulfate) aerosol is far less.