SOME POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTROUS FLOODS

Ts. E. Mirtskhulava

The paper presents a methodology of forecasting characteristics of disastrous floods based on the theory of random processes, in particular on the theory of level intersections (the theory of runs). The frequency of event interval, which is determined most simply and reliably, is used in calculations. The calculation is corrected as the new information becomes available.