STANDARDIZATION OF SKILL SCORES FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM WEATHER FORECASTS

A. V. Murav'ev and R. M. Vilfand

Two characteristics of forecasts quality proposed by an initiative research group in the field of medium- and long-term weather forecasting to be a standardized reporting system are discussed. The one is equivalent to the “forecast skill score”. The other is a generalization of several continguency table derivatives obtained in a “bin” forecasting procedure. This may be used for assessing the quality of deterministic and probability forecasts as well as dynamical, empirical, and statistical ones. Some properties of this characteristic are discussed and its applications are considered.