The Statistical Model of Floods during Spring Tidesand Ice Drift on the Lena River near Yakutsk

G. P. Struchkova, V. V. Timofeeva, and T. A. Kapitonova

Presented is the application of the risk analysis method and geoinformation techniques for the statistical model development that enables predicting the risk of floods due to spring tides using the statistical data obtained for 50 years and the regression modeling. The proposed method enables obtaining the estimates of the water level at spring floods for the certain time period and constructing the models of the hazardous process under study (the trend and the harmonic and random components) with the sufficient accuracy; it is corroborated by the results of the forecasting of maximum water levels for Yakutsk city.