Verification of High-impact Weather Event Forecasts for the Region of the Sochi-2014 Olympic Games. Part I: Deterministic Forecasts during the Test Period

A. V. Murav’ev, D. B. Kiktev, A. Yu. Bundel’, T. G. Dmitrieva, and A. V. Smirnov

Described are the methods and results of the verification of deterministic forecasts of precipitation, air temperature, and wind speed based on the COSMO-Ru and NMMB models issued during the test events (from January 1 to March 15, 2013) in the region of the Sochi-2014 Olympic Games. Considered are the specific features of the Pierce Skill Score (PSS) and Extremal Dependence Index (EDI) used for verifying the forecasts of events whose base rate decreases as critical thresholds increase or decrease. Presented are the applicability limits of these measures for verifying the forecasts of various meteorological parameters as well as several analytic and graphic estimates of their interconnection are represented.