On Estimating the Return Values for Time Series of Wind Speed and Wind Wave Height

V. G. Polnikov and I. A. Gomorev

In order to estimate the return values of the time series of wind speed and wind wave height, it is proposed to use the extrapolation of polynomial approximation constructed for the small part of the tail of probability function of the series considered. The method is based on the optimization of the accuracy of polynomial approximation implemented by varying the length and shift of the used part of probability function and the polynomial exponent. Optimization includes control over quality criteria for approximation that are aimed at increasing approximation accuracy. On the example of wind reanalysis data and the results of numerical simulation of wind waves in the Indian Ocean for the period of 1980–2010, the proposed method is applied to obtain the return value estimates of the mentioned parameters at several fixed points in the ocean.