Computation of Extreme Ice Drift Velocities on the Northeastern Shelf of Sakhalin Island from Radar Measurements

G. V. Shevchenko and V. S. Tambovsky

The technology of the method of joint probabilities of the tidal and residual (de-tided) components developed to estimate the possible sea level fluctuations [1, 10] and modified to calculate rare extreme total sea current velocities [8], is applied to compute ice drift velocity on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island. The initial data are the hourly series of the drift velocity vector obtained from radar observations at Odoptu coastal station (1986–1996, during the whole ice season) and at the Molikpaq drilling platform (in May in 1999, 2000, 2003, 2005, and 2006). The distribution of the tidal component was determined by the prediction of the corresponding series for 19 years that is possible due to the stability of characteristics of the tidal drift. The distribution of the residual component was estimated by combining all de-tided series for the entire time period. The obtained estimates of total ice drift velocities of rare occurrence are in good agreement with those presented in [8] and can be used for designing facilities for the extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island.